Seminarios

Presenta:Lisa Kahn (Professor of Economics, University of Rochester; Research Associate, NBER, Labor Studies; Research Fellow, IZA).

Abstract: The COVID recession saw an unprecedented spike in layoffs and collapse in employment in spring 2020. Since then there was a rapid recovery for two months that has now slowed substantially. These employment dynamics have been so far dominated by temporary layoffs and recalls. The fact that so many who lost jobs have been able to maintain ties with their employer means there is a potential for a rapid recovery. However, not all who want a job will be recalled as some displaced workers have completely severed ties from their previous employers and others who are currently holding out hope of being recalled may learn their employer no longer exists or wants them. The recovery crucially depends on how well the group of searching unemployed will fare at forming new matches. However, aggregate statistics, dominated by temporary layoffs and recalls, obscure information on this dimension. We develop a taxonomy of non-employed into those waiting to be recalled and those searching for a new employer. At the beginning of the crisis the unemployed were dominated by the former, while now the latter hold the majority. We then show what this new taxonomy implies for market tightness, mismatch, and the recovery moving forward.

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